Making the Case for MPJ to Play One More Season at Mizzou
- Coach David Heeb
- Mar 18, 2018
- 3 min read
Michael Porter Jr has been seen as a "one and done" college prospect since probably his sophomore year of high school. Coming into this season, a lot of people had him pegged in as the first or second pick in the NBA Draft. Then he got hurt. Now everybody seems to have an opinion...
Should he stay, or should he go?
I've been on the record all year that he should enter the draft. I just can't see any scenario where he would fall lower than 3rd, maybe 4th, in this year's NBA Draft. I still believe that's true.
Here are the things I'd consider if I were MPJ:
1. How healthy are you? That's really the only consideration. If you feel like you're 100%, and you're going to kill it in pre-draft workouts, then go show out and do your thing. If you really are 60-70%, like you said after your last game, then your draft stock might not bounce back prior to the draft this year. You might need to at least consider going through the entire pre-draft process at 100%, which might mean waiting a year.
2. Are there really six or seven teams stupid enough to pass on MPJ in the draft? Will teams really draft Mo Bamba or Trae Young ahead of MPJ? I would not let MPJ fall farther than 4th, but based on health concerns and GM stupidity, never say never. As crazy at it sounds, somebody might. It happens all the time, GM's draft the wrong player (Hasheem Thabeet, hello???), said GM gets fired, and we all look back and say "can you believe they passed on ____Fill in the blank__" (Steph Curry, hello???). I think Ayton, Bagley, and maybe Doncic are worth a look.
3. You might make more money if you wait a year. The NBA rookie salary scale says the #5 pick would get just over $15 million over the first three years of the rookie contract. The #1 pick next year would get over $25 million over the first three years of the rookie contract. The big money is made in the second contract, where guys like Otto Porter Jr ($104 million, 4 years), Victor Olidipo ($85 million, 4 years), and Joel Embid ($148 million, 5 years) have cashed in to varying degrees on their second deal. So starting your pro career one year earlier definitely gets you closer to that second contract sooner, but it might also cut down on your initial guaranteed contract.
4. What is the draft order? If the ping pong balls fall the right way, and it looks like you can end up in a solid situation (Cleveland with Lebron, etc), then you have to consider that. If the draft order has you headed to a place like Sacramento or Orlando? It might be worth waiting one more season.
5. Mizzou could be one of the best teams in the country next year. Don't laugh. IF (big if) MPJ decides to stay, Mizzou would have the best player in the country. Alongside him, he'll have his brother Jontay, who will also be a top 10 pick next year. What other team out there, besides maybe Duke, can say they have two Top 10 picks on their roster? The Tigers will also return Jeremiah Tilmon (6'11 first round NBA prospect), Kevin Puryear (key contributor), Jordan Geist (key contributor), Reed Nikko (6'10 contributor), Ronnie Suggs (6'6 redshirt), Torrence Watson (6'5 blue chip recruit), and maybe Cortney Ramey (best unsigned point guard in the nation). Cuonzo Martin can coach. The Tigers would be talented up and down the roster. They would win a lot of games. MPJ's draft stock would no doubt go up.
I'm rooting for MPJ to get healthy, for the right teams to be drafting in the Top 5, and for him to be able to realize his team of going pro this year. If things don't work out that way?
M-I-Z... one more year?
Thanks for reading. #JWT
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