M-I-Z... Z-O-U! The Preseason Basketball Report

What's up JWT Nation. I'm here today to talk some Mizzou Tigers basketball. I'm a huge Mizzou fan, and we're going to ignore the fact that ALL of the coaches completely ignored me when I reached out to them.

Here are my predictions for the starters, the bench, the stats, and the schedule...

STARTERS:

Guard - Terrance Phillips, 5'11 Junior. I know everybody wants to put the stud freshman in here, but I think Phillips will be the starter. Here's why... One, his shooting went up a lot from his freshman to his sophomore year. He shot over 35% from three last year, which is very respectable. I think he's a year older, he's playing with better players now, and he will shoot even better this year. What do we really need from the point guard? We need him to get everybody involved, to hit open threes when Porter gets doubled, and play good defense. Phillips will do that. He won't put up the 10 points, 4.5 assists that he put up last year, but he will be a very solid starter for the Tigers.

Guard - Kassius Robertson, 6'3 Graduate Student. Robertson is a graduate transfer from Canisius, a mid major D1 school. He shot over 41% from three last year, where he averaged over 16 points per game. I think he'll be the starting two guard because he brings experiences (he's 23 and has already been in college for four years) and he can really shoot the basketball. Playing next to elite talent, he is going to get a lot of open looks. I think he is going to have a big season for the Tigers.

Forward - Jordan Barnett, 6'7 Senior. People forget, but Barnett was a big time recruit coming out of the St. Louis area his senior year. He committed to Texas, but then transferred back to Mizzou. Last year he was the leading scorer, averaging 12 points and 6 rebounds per game. This guy is a superb athlete. He's going to have to shoot the three better to see big minutes (he only shot 30% last year), but I think being the 2nd or 3rd option will make him a lot better shooter. I think Barnett is a "glue guy" and a real key to the overall success of the entire season.

Forward - Michael Porter, 6'10 freshman. He's probably the biggest recruit in program history and arguably the best freshman in the entire country. Everything Mizzou does on offense should revolve around putting this guy in a position to be successful, because if he is scoring and playing at his potential, then everybody else's life get a lot easier. The only real question mark with Michael is going to be "the other things" besides scoring... defense, rebounding, etc... as a young player, he is going to be asked to do a lot of those things also. If he commits to being an elite defender and rebounder, with his overall talent level, watch out. The sky is the limit. I look for this hometown kid to live up to the hype and elevate the program back to the level we haven't seen since the Norm Stewart Days.

Post - Jontay Porter, 6'11 freshman. Michael's "little brother" reclassified to be able to enroll as a freshman this season. Jontay was ranked as a five star recruit and the #25 overall recruit in the entire nation, so he's not just tagging along with Michael. Jontay is a big boy (6'11, 240 pounds), and he can play. He shot over 40% from three during the Nike Summer League. He's very skilled and should compliment the Tigers offense by being able to play on the block, or should the Tigers go big with Tilmon (more on him in a minute), Jontay could also slide out and play the "stretch 4" position. The key for Jontay is going to be his defense. He's young, and he's going to be the rim protector, the last line of defense, on a lot of possessions. Can he hold up? Can he stay out of foul trouble? In my opinion, the answer to those questions will be the difference between "making the tournament" or "possible Final Four team" for Mizzou.

THE BENCH

Jeremiah Tilmon, 6'10 freshman. This guy was a four star recruit and a steal for the Tigers. It's not out of the question that he wins a starting spot, either by outplaying Jontay, or possibly even playing "the 5" while Jontay and Michael slide over and play the other two forward spots. Tilmon is very athletic. Like most young big guys, he's raw and needs to refine his post game. Whether he starts or comes off the bench, he is a major talent. Mizzou needs him to be a beast in the paint and dominate the glass.

Blake Harris, 6'3 freshman. Harris is another Top 100 recruit. A highly touted point guard, it's not out of the question that he takes the starting job from Terrance Phillips. I think you could also see Harris and Phillips play together a lot because Harris has the size to guard bigger wing guards. Whether he starts or not, he is a starting caliber player. So when the Tigers go to the bench, they're bringing quality into the game instead of "just a body." The key for Harris is learning to turn all of that athleticism into making him an elite defender. If he simply buys into being an elite defender and running the team, it's going to be tough to keep him out of the game. If he does that and knocks down open perimeter shots? Then he will take this team to another level.

Kevin Puryear, 6'7 junior. This guy is a "tweener" forward who had a nice season last year, averaging about 12 points and 6 rebounds per game. Coming off of the bench, playing with better players, he is going to be a really, really useful player for the Tigers. My question with Puryear is, where does he fit in with the other forwards? There is a lot of talent up front, and Puryear has to play power forward or center. He's not a small forward. I think that spot is going to be occupied by Michael a lot of the time, meaning Puryear's minutes might be limited. The key for him is going to be buying into a new role and accepting the reality that the potential #1 pick in the NBA Draft is ahead of him. If he can do that, and be the same or better player coming off the bench as he was as a starter a year ago? Then he is a big upgrade for the Tigers, because they basically have another starter coming off of the bench.

For the rest... Cullen VanLeer (shooter), Jordan Geist (combo guard), CJ Roberts (talented freshman guard), Reed Niko (6'10 soph), Mitchell Smith (6'10 soph)... there are minutes available for another role player or two. It's just going to come down to buying into the role of a "specialist" and being a "superstar at your role." Pouting or complaining about playing 8-12 minutes a game? Then you can just go sit at the end of the bench by the water cooler. If the Tigers can find one or even two more of these "super subs," then they become a really dangerous team.

The coach, Cuonzo Martin, has a reputation of being disciplined, defensive minded coach. That is encouraging, especially with so many young players, because he is going to have to coach some toughness and grit into these guys. That's not a knock on anybody on the team, but it's just a reality with young players. I hope he figures out how to build the offense around Michael Porter. If he can get Michael in the right spots, and get everybody else to buy into "the game is easier when we play through him," then this will be a Top 10 team in the country.

I think the rotation at guard is Phillips, Robertson, and Harris rotating between the guard spots. That would put all three guys playing 20-30 minutes per game. Like I said above, one other guard can carve out 5-8 minutes per game, maybe more on certain nights, as a specialist.

I think the rotation at forward and center is very intriguing, and it's totally possible because of the versatility of the Porter brothers. The base lineup, in my opinion, will be Barnett at small forward, Michael at power forward, and Jontay in the post. Tilmon can go in for Jontay, with those two kind of splitting minutes there. Puryer can go in for Barnett. which would slide Michael over to small forward with Puryear playing the four. Barring injury, I think it will be really hard for any other front court players to crack the rotation. That's all pretty straight forward.

Depending on the night and the opponent, where things could get really interesting would be when Tilmon goes in at center, with Jontay sliding over to power forward and Michael playing small forward. That's a huge front line, 6'10, 6'11, 6'10. Those guys are all long and athletic, but they're also young. Can that lineup guard anybody? That's the question.

Here are my stats predictions for the actual rotation, barring injuries or foul trouble:

Here is my prediction on the schedule:

I think Mizzou will start out ON FIRE. They're going to start the year 15-1, mostly because there are so many winnable games before SEC Conference play starts. The big hurdles are Iowa State (a tough opener), at Utah (young team, early game, hostile environment), the AdvoCare Tournament (going to see at least one tough game here), at UCF (sneaky good team, on the road, after a week on the road in Florida), and the Braggin' Rights Game against Illinois (always a tough game).

After that hot start, they're going to come back down to Earth in a much improved SEC Conference. Arkansas is going to be better. Alabama is a sleeper team with a lot of talent. Georgia, Ole Miss, and Mississipi State are all potential breakout teams. South Carolina looks to build off of a Final Four run. Then there is Florida, always good, and the league bully, Kentucky.

It's not going to be easy, especially winning on the road. I think Mizzou will pick up some big road wins (at South Carolina) and some big wins at home (Florida). They'll finish somewhere close to 13-5 in league play, good for 2nd or 3rd in the conference. They'll make it to the semifinals of the SEC Tournament.

Big picture, they're going to be a Top 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. I think Mizzou will finish 29-8 and make the Sweet 16 before bowing out. This is a very optimistic view of the season. I think any Mizzou fan would take that type of season RIGHT NOW!

Having said all of that, how many times do you get a player as good as Michael Porter on your team? This team could make a run at the Final Four. We just need the coaches to get everybody to buy in, we need everybody to play their role, and we need Michael Porter to be spectacular.

It can happen. I can't wait. Thanks for reading. #JWT #MIZ #ZOU